Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
